This article is the first in a six-part series exploring how major restaurant cities have been impacted by the pandemic. Subsequent articles willbe published here。

Overview

  • Restaurant closures to date:As of September 2020, that number was624 restaurants, meaning nearly 20% of Seattle's restaurants have disappeared
  • Restaurant industry job losses to date:The state lost49,000 jobsin 2020, a 19% decline
  • Restaurant industry revenue losses to date:The change in taxable business income statewide in 2020 is calculated at$4.8 billion

"Restaurants in downtown Seattle were hit hard before the pandemic was even known nationally."

— Steve Hooper, President of Ethan Stowell Restaurant Group

Weeks before most of the United States had even heard the term "coronavirus," Seattle's restaurant industry was already preparing for the coming impact. On January 21 — two months before lockdowns were implemented in most cities nationwide — Snohomish County, Washington recorded the first case of COVID-19 in the United States. At the time, the news did not cause much of a stir, but by the end of February, Governor Jay Inslee had declared a state of emergency. Within days after that,Amazon and Microsoftasked employees to work from home, and a week before indoor dining was fully restricted, Seattlecelebrity chef Tom Douglas closed his restaurants。

Then came a frantic scramble to respond. Restaurants adjusted their operating models, striving to maintain cash flow while ensuring public safety. Takeout and delivery orders surged. Yurts and outdoor heaters appeared on city streets to entice cautious diners to eat outside.

A year later, the pandemic continues. After indoor dining restrictions oscillated between full closures and capacity limits of 25% and 50%, battered chefs and operators are still struggling to stay in business. The Washington Hospitality Association had previously predicted that 35% of restaurants open in early 2020 would close at some point in 2021; but after experiencing a second round of closures last fall and winter, the association revised that forecast to about 45%.

However, a key question remains: did these indoor dining restrictions actually help lower local COVID-19 infection rates? Were they worth the heavy price paid by the restaurant industry?

How King County's indoor dining policy changes affected COVID-19 infection rates

Data shows that the percentage increase in new COVID-19 cases differed around changes in restaurant capacity restrictions.

On March 16 of last year, as COVID-19 cases surged, Governor Inslee first suspended indoor dining. Restaurant Dive calculated the percentage increase in COVID-19 cases after each policy change (restrictions and capacity relaxations) based on data from the King County Health Department (the county where Seattle is located). The results show that 30 days after the initial closure, cases had still risen by 820%; after 60 days, the monthly increase had dropped to 53%. However, it is worth noting that in the early stages of the pandemic, testing and reporting processes, as well as overall public health guidance, were still in flux, and experts' understanding of the novel virus was still evolving.

When indoor dining was suspended again on November 16, infection rates rose by 57% after 30 days, but the increase in the following month was only 38%.

These numbers are only part of the story, as factors such as holiday travel or more indoor winter gatherings can also affect infection rates. Since it is impossible to accurately determine the specific causes of rising cases, it is difficult to assess whether indoor dining restrictions truly worked, which has also led to disagreements within the restaurant industry over acceptable capacity limits.

Timeline of COVID-19 restaurant restrictions