This article is the fifth installment in the series "How the Pandemic Affected Six Restaurant Cities," with subsequent articles to be published. The series aims to analyze how major U.S. restaurant cities fared during the pandemic and their responses.

Overview

  • Restaurant closures:As of March 19, 2021, according to the Restaurant Association Metropolitan Washington, a cumulative total of 124 closures had occurred, a 114% increase compared to the same period from March 2019 to March 2020.
  • Restaurant industry job losses:Between February 2020 and January 2021, restaurant industry employment decreased by 28,900 jobs, a decline of 53.8%.
  • Restaurant sales losses:According to data from Upserve by Lightspeed, sales declined by 15.9% between February 28, 2020, and March 14, 2021.

"On March 16, I thought my career was over, and we were completely in dire straits. That was probably the most agonizing moment of my life. From that day on, there was almost nothing to count on in the early days of the pandemic... and not much confidence in the federal government either." — Jason Berry, founder and principal of Knead Hospitality & Design

Washington, D.C.'s restaurant market has its own particularities. It is neither a state nor merely a city, and its restaurant revenue is heavily influenced by shifts in political power. When the White House changes hands, the bars and restaurants favored by Democratic or Republican staffers rise and fall accordingly. The congressional summer recess drags down downtown sales, but the steady stream of tourists at the National Mall partially compensates for that shortfall.

D.C. restaurant operators were already accustomed to this unique market rhythm, but the chaos of 2020 still caught them off guard. While other major restaurant cities were struggling with pandemic restrictions, restaurants in Washington, D.C., also had to contend with curfews imposed last summer due to mass protests. These curfews came shortly after restaurants were permitted to resume outdoor dining on May 29.

"It was like a war zone," said Jason Berry, founder of Knead Hospitality & Design. "When the streets are empty and there's rioting, sitting on F Street in Penn Quarter is not pleasant at all."

In January of this year, after the Capitol riot, thousands of National Guard troops were deployed, and restaurants had to adapt to this new normal. As the threat of violence continued, D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser ordered restaurants to remain closed until January 22, two days after the presidential inauguration—crushing the industry's hopes for a sales peak. Inaugurations are typically one of the most profitable periods for local restaurants in the four-year cycle, Pizzeria Paradiso owner Ruth Gresser told Washingtonian magazine.

The Capitol Hill neighborhood in D.C. was also divided by the layers of fencing and razor wire that surrounded the Capitol for months, and one historic restaurant was locked inside the barriers from mid-January until the end of March.

For Berry, these unpredictable factors compounded his frustration with the way D.C. leadership and the federal government handled restaurant restrictions.

"The lack of coherence in how our country has responded (to the pandemic) is clearly a huge disappointment for many operators. Local governments don't know what to do; they make a rule, and then they don't want to change it because they don't want to seem indecisive... instead of doing the right thing," Berry said. "It's just for show; it's all nonsense."

Despite the challenges, Washington, D.C.'s COVID-19 case rate is improving. According to D.C. data, over the 30 days from February 23 to March 21, cumulative cases increased by only 8.6%. On March 22, the city recorded just 1 death, compared to 7 on December 22, three months earlier.

It is currently impossible to know how much revenue, employment, and restaurant count the D.C. restaurant industry could have recovered if certain restrictions, such as the alcohol service curfew and capacity limits, had not been implemented. However, a key unresolved question is whether D.C.'s indoor dining restrictions actually helped lower local COVID-19 infection rates, and whether those restrictions were worth the heavy toll on the restaurant industry.

How D.C. restaurant policy changes affected COVID-19 infection rates

Note: The chart shows the percentage increase in new COVID-19 cases before and after changes in restaurant capacity limits.

On March 16 of last year, Mayor Bowser initially banned indoor dining, allowing only takeout, delivery, and drive-thru service, and did not approve outdoor dining until the end of May. Nearly 30 days later, local restaurants were allowed to reopen indoor dining at 50% capacity.

Restaurant Dive, using public data from the D.C. government, calculated the percentage increase in COVID-19 cases within 30 days after each restaurant policy change, including both tightening and loosening of capacity caps.

The data shows that in the 30 days after D.C. first closed indoor dining, the COVID-19 infection rate still rose by 12,824%. This surge reflects the difficulty that governments in several major U.S. cities faced in containing virus spread during the initial weeks of the pandemic, when testing measures and safety protocols were still being developed.

When Bowser ordered D.C. restaurants to suspend indoor dining for a second time on Christmas Eve—one of the most profitable periods for the restaurant industry—cases rose by 28% a month later.

Another noteworthy aspect of the Bowser administration's pandemic data is the comparison of outbreaks at restaurants versus other businesses and high-traffic venues. For example, between July 31, 2020, and March 4, 2021, the D.C. health department reported 32 outbreaks at restaurants and bars, compared to 18 at office buildings and 26 at K-12 schools.

In December, before indoor dining closed again on December 23, restaurants recorded 7 outbreaks. Between January 22, when restaurants reopened at 25% capacity, and February 26, they also recorded 7 outbreaks.

Although these data are noteworthy, they do not provide a complete picture of the relationship between local COVID-19 cases and restaurant restrictions. Factors such as travel, private gatherings, and people coming in from outside due to the summer mass protests could also affect virus transmission. This ambiguity makes it difficult to assess whether restaurant capacity limits can truly slow infections among the population, and it has led to divergent restaurant guidance among governments across the country.

Timeline of pandemic restaurant restrictions